Do you think the Ukraine ceasefire will hold?

[Challenger 383]

Macc, im with you there, Putin is a shrewd cookie. I cant understand why the West is making such a song and dance about this, I mean it's not as if the whole debacle has caught them unawares. Putin has warned NATO for a decade or more" dont tread on our toes as we wont stand for it". So what does everyone think, he to going to cave in, I will guarantee he wont, and if the Ukraine crisis excalates, the West, NATO, and the EU  will have some serious head scratching to do to defuse the situation, to be honest, Ukraine drew the short straw on this one, it could easily have been Poland,  or Latvia, or Hungary.  America is playing a blinder at the moment,  and flooding the world with cheap oil and gas, just remember when, the Yanks stop playing games, 99% of the EU's gas comes from Russia, our politicians are playing a dangerous game, they cant possibly win.

[macc]

Putin, the smartest politician of our time.

[rt21]

You can't negotiate with the devil,  " I hold in my hand a piece of paper........." will people never learn from history. Russia only respects strength, not appeasement.

Jim


The one thing that history has taught me is not to trust any major power, whether it be Russia, America or the UK. Some of the things that America has done in both covert and overt missions over the years are just as bad as some of the actions of the Russians.

The situation in the Ukraine could be solved tomorrow if the major powers really wanted to. But none of the major powers trust one another (with good reason) and each wants to extend or preserve their sphere of influence.

History also teaches us that conflicts arise from misunderstandings and blunders, which certainly has been the case with the Ukraine. In my opinion the E.U. totally misread the situation in the Ukraine when it offered them a series of association and free-trade agreements. They had failed to heed the concerns expressed by Putin over the years of Russia's fears of Western encirclement and that EU and NATO enlargement were part of a conspiracy to destroy Russia. (Mind you Putin was also at fault with some of his mixed messages on the subject). These concerns have to be put in the context of Russian views of the West over the last 40/50 years.

I think Angela Merkel to her credit has belatedly understood the issues, in a way which America is incapable of doing, and is trying to resolve them. Whether she will succeed is another matter.


Richard

[gus-lopez]

Just speaking to one of the boys next door , who is married to a Ukranian , & he was telling me that the father in law is struggling for money as the banks have none & the pensions aren't being paid.

Ukraine is a corrupt country, just like most ex soviet nations. :tiphat:     

He was also telling me that when they got married that the paperwork that they were legally entitled to for nothing !, cost them 3keuros in bungs! He said it was worse than Spain . :lol:

As others have said how can it hold when you are negotiating with a man who denies that he is even there ? They should have "assisted " the Ukrainians from the outset by sending in forces as soon as he annexed Crimea.

[webejamin]

Roger, Russia is partly in Europe and partly in Asia, you could say it's Eurasia. Like most things, I look to history to judge how a country or people will act in the future. We don't need a pencil to work out the Russians, do we? They will never be European, it's not in their agenda, never has been, but they would like Europe to be part of their federation. Russia is like a bag of cats and cannot be trusted, it's too corrupt.
What business is it of Russia to agree to a ceasefire, if, as Putin says, they are not fighting in Ukraine? I don't believe for one moment that anyone wants a war with Russia. The whole thing is a Ukrainian problem and should be sorted by them. Ukraine is a corrupt country, just like most ex soviet nations. :tiphat:    

[markandkaren]

how can you negotiate a ceasefire with putin when he's adamant he hasn't got troops or machinery inside ukraine?
i speak to a ukrainian friend on a motorcycle forum once in a while. spoke to him friday and after the usual bike related chit chat i always ask him how things are.  in his little village things a bad.  businesses and essential facilities are "overseen" by men who dont carry i.d. but have the means to enforce what they want. and they speak fluent russian. he's a graphic designer and he could move anywhere and probably get a good job but he stays because of his mother and sister. his wife is in england (english). two years ago he used all his savings and bought a classic jap bike. his reasoning was the value of the hyrvnia could fall but he could always ride his bike to poland, germany, etc and get the same amount if not more. how right he was. his savings would have been halved by now. i don't care much for the politics of the area but comrade putin has the ego to be dangerous.  my friends parting comment on the subject was " merkel and hollande might as well hold up a bit of paper and exclaim PEACE IN OUR TIME!"

[jim]

You can't negotiate with the devil,  " I hold in my hand a piece of paper........." will people never learn from history. Russia only respects strength, not appeasement.

[Roger]

I thouht Russia is part of Europe.
I thought that Russia has agreed to the ceasefire
but the Ukrainian unofficial forces said this morning on Euro News that they reject it.
So the fighting will continue
and thousands more innocent Ukrainian civilians, mostly in the east of Ukraine, will die.
All because some people want a war with Russia rather than a negotiated peace.

[webejamin]

Churchill wanted to take the war to the Russians and drive them back out of Europe, but the other leaders said no. Look what happened then. 

[jim]

My father who fought in WW2, said the only thing he learnt from that terrible conflict was "never ever trust the Russians" So sadly my opinion is this is just the beginning of a much greater conflict.
 

[Roger]

No.
There was an interview today on EuroNews on the streets of Kiev.
They were talking to the Kiev paramilitaries who form the backbone of the Kiev army, although they are not officially under the control of the Kiev government.
they are well armed and well organised, and they are the forces who have ben carrying out most of the attacks in the east.
They were quite clear.
They do not want peace.
They are determined to carry on fighting to throw Russia out of the Crimea.
So unless the Kiev government cracks down on these unofficial armies (which they cannot because they are the people who put the curernt govenment in power) the conflict will continue and Russia will have to bring in more arms to counter the arms which the US is now promising Kiev.

[zilnor]

Fighting again overnight. A former British ambassador to Russia was on the news this morning and his opinion is that it is Putin's fault. Oh really ?  :crazy:

[Challenger 383]

Unfortunately probably no.

[sallyb]

No chance while Putin pulls the strings

[byrney]

Not a cat in hell's chance.  If you were serious about a ceasefire, you'd agree it and cease fire immediately and not continue indiscriminate slaughter.

[webejamin]

I hope so, but I don't believe it will, and it hasn't even started yet.
Waddya fink? :tiphat: