Mr Speaker (wow )

[Old Pedro]

Indeed Tetely. Whilst we are all worried which politician will open the banker´s vault to find an IOU note in it after the vaccine is found, if not before, we must not forget the Labour government left a similar note. Let´s hope Mr.Johnson can pull the rabbit out of the hat with other sliding economies. We have to give Mr.Johnson and his team (or should I say the scientists and medical team) the opportunity to install some clarity and confidence for the jobless,homeless, sick in the future. One thing is for certain, Mr.Johnson and his team would not have watched the documentary about South Korea and how they immediately acted. Over 51 million people and 260 deaths. Withing a month the outbreak was contained, a word that will haunt Mr.Johnson. Whether the statistics are to be believed is another debate, but it looked real to me last night watching channel 4, unlike Michael Pailn in North Korea when it appeared to be staged. At least their scientists will be covid-19 free to launch more rockets !

Tetley, last time we collected olive oil from you, we wondered whether you had another door from your garage leading to your rocket making area ! lol !

Enjoy your day, stay safe and well.

[Tetley]

I think the point been missed is......Johnstone was holding up covid charts telling everybody all was under control and it was  a lot worst in the  EU......and now it isnt and his charts have....vanished

The Bank governor is saying....biggest down turn since 1709....but there wont be any austerity ........were as they haven't recovered yet from the 2008 crash/austerity with 1000,s of families & children in poverty

then we have this magical  but possible trade deal with the  USA  that's going into Job,s Depression wile the  UK is leaving the 2nd biggest trading block in the world in January on a voluntary basis .......and is already in Jobs depression.

it will be interesting to see what Nissan & Toyota do by the back end of the year......

right dears il leave yer wi this one as were on Rocket crank  end float ti day in space centre so please all  play nice    x

[webejamin]

It's the same with all the gov.uk knocking Ang, there's not one politician running this crisis, it's all the scientists and medical people. The same ones as any other party or leader would be consulting and obeying.

I don't like Boris or the Tories, but they served a purpose at the time and they're inadvertently in at the deep end now, just like the rest of us.

The real crunch will come when it's all behind us and a vaccine is found, then we'll start paying for it, whoever runs the show.

[Angleseyite]

I agree Webe,
Its a bit of a leveller this virus, in that all the world economies
are suffering on a similar basis, so the UK is as good as it gets from an economic point of view.

[webejamin]

How else will the UK recover? How else will any nation recover? I'd love to know.

[Dunedin]

I would have said if the UK government manage to keep the debt caused by the virus under a trillion in sterling, they will have done well. 🤔

[Tetley]

  https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/treasury-considering-tax-cuts-and-public-sector-wage-freezes-to-pay-300bn-coronavirus-bill-leaked-document-shows

Rishi Sunak could be forced to hike income tax, end the pensions triple lock and freeze public sector pay to try to meet the multi-billion pound cost of the coronavirus crisis, according to a leaked document.

A proposed Treasury “policy package” drawn up for the Chancellor - and obtained by The Telegraph - says the drastic measures may have to be signalled within weeks to “enhance credibility and boost investor confidence” in the UK economy.

Labour called on both Mr Sunak and Boris Johnson to make a statement “rejecting these plans”.

According to the news title, The Treasury’s base case scenario for the year now forecasts that Britain will end it with a £337 billion budget deficit - a sharp rise on the £55bn forecast in the March budget.

And its worst-case scenario suggests that figure could soar to £516bn in the current financial year.

[Old Pedro]

Tetley, it does seem he is ramping up measures to keep everything "in state". His priority in this crisis is to paint the Mexican wall in black I kid you not to deter climbers ! Most climbers try to climb over the wall at night ? I see Trump's valet has been tested positive for Covid-19. The clock is ticking. Unemployment around the world will keep rising and the statistics will only go one way until sanctions are relaxed and a virus is found. I guess this is a case of clock resetting around the world (not cuckoo clocks!) and interesting times ahead for mankind.

Yesterday, I saw Leo Varadkar calling Deputy Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein) two faced and dishonest. He told her Ireland had given 350 euros p.w. whereas in N.I. it is 100 GBS p.w. Also adding that Sinn Fein were promoting the fact on FB they had handed out food parcels to the poor, reminiscent to him of Donald Trump handing out toilet rolls after the hurricane hit the islands in the Caribbean. Now now !

[Tetley]

i keep reading about this new USA & UK great trade deal, and now Trumphs on about cancelling work visas to keep all the jobs" in state "........

Very difficult but interesting times

[Cartron]

Unemployment in Ireland has jumped from 4%. To 28.5%  in the last two months . Other countries must be in the same boat.
However most of these are unemployed as the businesses are closed by order and the unemployed get 350 euro a week even if they were partimers and the businesses get 80% of the staff wages  from the Govt. so  most will be back in work in July.
Unemployment rates will then drop back but it's still a disaster as lots of pubs and other small businesses  will never reopen .
Its happened before and in a couple of years things will be back near some normality . The world will be a much better place with more working from home, less traffic on the roads and in the air , more holidays at home and maybe the young peoples Love Island lifestyle might improve. Maybe.??

[Tetley]

Trouble at Pit .

USA.

NBC News reports that the American economy lost approximately 14.5 million jobs in April 2020. According to the Department of Labor’s monthly employment report, the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in March to 14.7% by the end of April. This is the highest unemployment rate since the height of the Great Depression, when the unemployment rate was 24.9%. NBC observes that COVID-19 “has wiped out all job gains since the Great Recession.”

Michelle Meyer, head of United States economics at Bank of America, called it “the biggest and most acute shock that we’ve seen in post-war history.”

COVID-19 has hit the nation’s economy hard. In order to adopt social distancing measures, many stores and businesses have shut down or otherwise limited operations for weeks. 33.5 million people have filed for unemployment since mid-March. 22.6 million of them are seeking ongoing benefits.

NBC reports that President Donald J. Trump advocates for allowing businesses to resume operations and predicted that the economy will “transition into greatness” in the third quarter.

Others are cautious about what the economic turnaround will look like. NBC writes, “Many customers remain hesitant about returning to restaurants and bars, watching movies, or attending sporting events.”

And even though the national government has provided trillions in stimulus funding and relief aid, the outlook for many businesses is dire. Major retailers like J.Crew and Neimann Marcus have filed for bankruptcy, and NBC reports that “many more [are] skipping rent payments in order to preserve their business.”

And Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said to NBC that she thinks unemployment may be even more widespread than the Department of Labor’s statistics indicate. “I think the real number is probably around 23 or 24 percent. It's devastating,” she said.

[Crancrank]

Ditto

[byrney]

Oh, yawn. Back to Brexit. Thought Phil had banned it. Signing off.

[Tetley]

   
from the media and a compleat disaster for youngsters and oldsters with familys to support
   

The Bank of England has forecast that the coronavirus crisis will push the UK economy into its deepest recession in 300 years, with output plunging almost 30 per cent in the first half of the year.

In its monetary policy report, the  bank presented rough and ready predictions for the economy, suggesting that output would slip 3 per cent in the first quarter followed by a further 25 per cent fall in the second. This would mean an almost 30 per cent drop overall in the first half of 2020, the fastest and deepest recession since the “great frost” in 1709.


https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2020/monetary-policy-report-financial-stability-report-may-2020

[webejamin]

I think a no deal is the only way forward under any circumstances, but particularly with the virus going on.
Brussels won't want a deal if it can keep the UK in the EU and get more payments out of it.
In a similar vein, the UK won't want to pay out even more billions on top of trying to recover from the affects of the virus.
We've been 4 years at it now and as Roger points out, more delays will not go favourably at the next election.

A bit of common sense all round would see Brexit done and a deal sorted, but unfortunately it aint about common sense when it comes to fatcats making money.

[Roger]

The latest estimate is that it will take 3 years to get back to where we were a year ago.
The debt for every country will be massive.

And on top will be the economic disruption caused by Brexit.
Cannot see an alternative but a no deal at the end of the year.
A delay will push the disruption back to a year before the next general election in May 2024.
The government will not want this as a campaign issue.

[Tetley]

I dont know how this ones going but it will certainly bea toe tapper if it came in


https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-04-19/spains-guaranteed-minimum-income-scheme-will-come-with-55bn-price-tag.html

[Roger]

The EU is discussing a 2tn package of grants and loans to re boot the EU economy.

[Tetley]

I think the point is,its the damage that's been done to business any country,because business is the engine room of economies from the sole trader to the multinational .

[Cartron]

Way more than some countries.!!

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/spain-unveils-unprecedented-e200-billion-coronavirus-package/

[PandJ]

Genuine question, what has the Spanish government done for businesses and citizens or are they waiting for the EU to come up with something?

[Tetley]

From our UK Chancellor  incredible effects of 19 in the business world,4 million jobs on hold (thankfully ) and 1.5 million extra universal credit claims within the past few weeks  in our "Business engine room"   



Mr Speaker,

Thank you for giving me the opportunity to update the House on our economic response to the coronavirus.

And let me say at the outset that I’m grateful to Members from all sides of this House, including the [RHM], the new Shadow Chancellor, for their contributions to the debate.

Mr Speaker,

We should be in no doubt about the seriousness of the economic situation.

The Office for Budget Responsibility have published a scenario showing that the coronavirus will have very significant impacts both at home, and in the global economy.

More than 1.5 million new claims have been made to Universal Credit.

Over 4 million jobs have now been furloughed.

Survey evidence suggests a quarter of businesses have paused trading.

These are already tough times.

There will be more to come.

And while our interventions have saved millions of jobs and businesses, we can’t save every job and every business.

I understand, and I share, people’s anxiety.

But right now, the most important thing we can do to protect our economy is to protect the health of our people.

As my RHF the Prime Minister said this morning, we are making progress; we are beginning to turn the tide.

But if we lose control of the virus again, we risk seeing a second spike, which we all want to avoid.

So the goal of our economic strategy is to provide a bridge over what will be a sharp and significant crisis, by:

keeping as many people as possible in their existing jobs
supporting viable businesses to stay afloat
and protecting the incomes of the most vulnerable
In other words, to maintain the productive capacity of the British economy.

So that once we are able to refine the public health restrictions…

…we can, as quickly as possible, get people back to work; businesses reopening; the self-employed trading again.

The OBR have been clear that if we had not taken the actions we have, the situation would be much worse.

The IMF have said our approach has been “aggressive” and “right”.

And taken together, I believe our response has been one of the most comprehensive of any country, anywhere in the world.

Working closely with the Bank of England, business groups, Trades Unions, banks, charities, and many others around the country…

…we have developed a plan to protect public services, people, and businesses.

Let me address each of those areas in turn.

Mr Speaker,

Public services like the NHS are on the frontline of the fight against coronavirus, and I repeat today: whatever resources our NHS needs, it will get.

At the Budget in March I announced the Coronavirus Emergency Response Fund, initially allocating £5 billion.

We’ve now provided over three times that initial amount, with the NHS and other public services receiving £16 billion so far.

We’re also providing extensive support for people’s jobs and incomes.

Our most important and far-reaching policy is the Coronavirus Jobs Retention Scheme, to keep people in employment.

The scheme launched, on schedule, last week, and I’m pleased to report that the first grants have just been paid.

Around half a million firms have already applied for help to pay the wages of over 4 million furloughed jobs; jobs that might otherwise have been lost.

HMRC are also on track to deliver the Self-employed Income Support Scheme, as promised, in early June, and we will publish detailed guidance this week.

Alongside these new interventions, we’ve strengthened our existing safety net, with increases to Universal Credit, the Local Housing Allowance, and Statutory Sick Pay.

And we’ve reinforced our social fabric, too, with £750 million for the charity sector.

Of course, the best way to support people is to protect their jobs â€" and that means supporting the businesses that employ them.

Our plan to help businesses means the following:

almost half of all business properties in England will pay no business rates this year
almost 1 million business premises can now receive cash grants of up to £10,000 or £25,000
over 2 million businesses have been offered a VAT deferral, saving an average of £30k
another 2.7 million people will be able to defer their self-assessment payments
almost 60,000 people and businesses have put time to pay arrangements in place with HMRC
up to 2 million employers will be able to access the Statutory Sick Pay rebate, up to £48,000 per firm
over £14 billion of lending has been issued through the Bank of England’s financing facility
over 20,000 Coronavirus Business Interruption Loans have now been approved
and, of course, all of this is on top of our furlough scheme, with payments now arriving.
Taken together, our plans are protecting millions of people and businesses across our country, through a set of interventions in the economy on a scale we’ve never attempted before â€" and they are working.

But, Mr Speaker,

I know that some small businesses are still struggling to access credit.

They are, in many ways, the most exposed businesses to the impact of the coronavirus; and often find it harder to access credit in the first place.

If we want to benefit from their dynamism and entrepreneurial spirit as we recover our economy, they will need extra support to get through the crisis.

Some businesses will not want to take on more debt; which is why our focus has been on cash grants, tax cuts and tax deferrals. But for others, loans will be part of the answer.

So today, we are announcing a new micro loan scheme, providing a simple, quick, easy solution for those in need of smaller loans.

Businesses will be able to apply for these new Bounce Back Loans for 25% of their turnover, up to a maximum of £50,000, with the government paying the interest for the first twelve months.

My RHF the Economic Secretary and I have been in close talks with the banks, and I’m pleased to say that these loans will be available from 9am next Monday.

There will be no forward-looking tests of business viability; no complex eligibility criteria; just a simple, quick, standard form for businesses to fill in.

For most firms, loans should arrive within 24 hours of approval.

And I have decided, for this specific scheme, that the government will support lending by guaranteeing, to the lender, 100% of the loan.

Let me address this point directly Mr Speaker:

I’ve heard some calls for government to underwrite all our loan schemes with 100% guarantees. I remain unconvinced by the case for doing that universally.

We should not ask the ordinary taxpayers of today and tomorrow to bear the entire risk of lending almost unlimited sums…

…to businesses who may, in some cases, have very little prospect of paying those loans back â€" and not necessarily because of the impact of coronavirus.

So I do not think it is appropriate to provide 100% guarantees on all of our schemes.

Instead, these new Bounce Back Loans carefully target that extraordinary level of state support at those who need it most.

And the £50,000 cap balances the risk to the taxpayer with the need to support our smallest businesses.

Mr Speaker,

Right now, the most important thing for the health of our economy is the health of our people.

We are making progress in our fight against the virus; but we are not there yet.

So our strategy is to protect people and businesses through this crisis, by:

Backing our public services and NHS with increased funding.

Strengthening our safety net to support those most in need.

And supporting people to stay in work and keep their businesses going.

Our response is comprehensive, coherent and coordinated. It is, I believe, the right approach.

And I hope I can continue to rely on the support, and advice, of all H&RHMs, as I commend this statement to the House.

Published 27 April 2020