Brexit deal.

[felipe]

The End.

[Tetley]

Interesting read from the LSE (for the interested only .... )

As the clock ticks down to 31 December 2020, the UK government has repeatedly invoked the concept of ‘sovereignty’ to explain the UK’s reluctance to enter into an FTA with the EU. In this blog, Clair Gammage and Phil Syrpis (University of Bristol Law School) explore the contradictions of navigating the post-Brexit world as a ‘sovereign’ state for the UK.

We are, by now, all too familiar with the language of ‘take back control’ and ‘Global Britain’ â€" rhetoric that is rooted in a particular understanding of sovereignty. However, the justificatory use of the concept of sovereignty to reject aspects of the potential trade deal is a ‘red-herring’: it is an illusory concept that detracts from and presents obstacles to the conclusion of any deal. The very nature of trade negotiation is rooted in interdependence and is antithetical to the purist notion of independence conveyed by the peculiar definition of sovereignty that is undermining the Brexit negotiations.

In what follows, we contrast three situations â€" remaining part of the single market and customs union, having a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, and leaving the EU with no future relationship deal. Our aim is to sketch the implications of each situation for borders and free trade and to problematise the very different notions of sovereignty in each situation.


Alan Walker / The M1 lorry queue / CC BY-SA 2.0
Single Market: Pooled Sovereignty

There are two ways to understand the concept of sovereignty in the context of the EU’s Single Market. If sovereignty is about absolute power, then each Member State of the EU cedes a degree of that absolute power in exchange for certain benefits and incentives. In that respect, each Member State relinquishes the absoluteness of its sovereignty. However, sovereignty can readily be understood in a very different way. In an interdependent world, sovereignty can be pooled, giving states influence â€" and a degree of control â€" not only in their domestic market but also in the markets in which they trade. If sovereignty is understood as ‘protecting a country’s interests’, then the UK’s sovereignty was not diminished, but rather enhanced, as a result of its membership of the EU Single Market.

In terms of borders, the consequences of membership of the single market are profound. Tariffs and most border checks on intra-EU trade are eliminated, and there is a common external tariff. States made the decision to work towards the creation of a European single market to realise the benefits which a larger market would yield. Nevertheless, they were, and remain, acutely aware of the risks and dangers in opening up their own domestic markets to people, goods and services from other states. So, an intensive infrastructure characteristic of a deep integration model has developed. In many areas, an agreement has been reached on harmonised standards. These are not imposed on the member states by the EU, rather they are created by common institutions in which the interests of each member state are represented. In many other areas, there is a presumption of mutual recognition â€" goods lawfully made in one member state are presumed to be lawful in all other member states (though this presumption may be rebutted where states can justify restrictions on free movement under a common legal framework).

Brexit can be seen as a demand to be free from this intensive infrastructure. The EU is depicted as creating rules, and enforcement mechanisms, which constrain the freedom of the member states. This EU strait-jacket is said to offer a contrast with the position the UK would enjoy outside the union. And, yet, as we shall see when we examine the alternatives, the free flow of goods and services within the Single Market (albeit subject to technical legal and regulatory frameworks) is only possible because each Member State has, to better protect its interests, relinquished a degree of its absolute power.

Free Trade Agreements: Interdependence Sovereignty

Early in the Brexit process, it became clear that the UK was not seeking to retain its place within the single market. Instead, it sought a relationship with the EU based on a free trade agreement, indicating a desire for a shallower type of integration. The pooling of sovereignty is, under this approach, perhaps a ‘step too far’, but the existence of large trade flows between the UK and the EU and the interdependence of the UK and the EU economies, indicates that there are transactional benefits for both sides of creating a new relationship which eliminates the need for some, though not all, regulatory checks.

In all FTAs, the presumption in favour of mutual recognition which characterises the EU single market disappears. Instead, it is incumbent on traders to show that they comply with the agreed rules. FTAs vary in scope and ambition. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest FTA in the world, was recently concluded by countries in the Asia-Pacific region and adopts a comparatively shallow model of integration that requires and reflects significantly lower degrees of interdependence. The UK and the EU have greater ambition. The stated aspiration is to conclude a ‘Canada-style’ deal â€" a type of FTA that liberalises beyond trade in goods and aims to achieve regulatory convergence on standards, including concerning labour and environment (the ‘level playing field’ issues of the Brexit negotiations). Given that the EU will no longer have recourse to the intensive enforcement infrastructure available within the single market, it has sought to insist that the UK continues to meet the EU’s standards (or to have broadly equivalent standards such as not to distort competition within the EU’s market) as a precondition to the agreement of an FTA.

What has characterised the negotiations over the past months is that the UK and the EU have not sought to identify areas of common interest, in which mutual commitments can be made to facilitate trade. Instead, and even though we start from a position of alignment, the UK has loudly insisted on its ‘sovereign’ ability to make its own choices, and to remove itself from the EU’s regulatory orbit. The notion of sovereignty has become a sticking point for the UK government in the negotiation toward a Canada-style FTA in two key areas: the level playing field (including non-regression clauses and the ‘ratchet clause’) and fisheries.

There is a noteworthy contrast with the UK’s negotiations with the EU and those which it is conducting with the wider world. In its other FTA negotiations, the UK has merely rolled-over existing agreements, including its preference schemes with developing countries. The decision to simply roll-over existing FTAs, rather than seek to negotiate new terms with existing trade partners, provides reassurance and certainty to businesses but there are perhaps missed opportunities for the UK to leverage its sovereignty in these relationships. The recently signed UK-Japan and UK-Singapore agreements appear to mirror pre-existing EU agreements, leaving the UK with ‘no change, no gain’. Concerning fisheries, while the deadlock between the UK and EU on fisheries has not been overcome, the UK has already signed four memoranda of understanding with Greenland, Norway, Iceland and the Faroe Islands. Arguments based on ‘absolute sovereignty’ are thereby diminished and contradicted by the UK’s readiness to enter into binding commitments with other states for mutual benefit.

World Trade Organisation terms: Absolute Sovereignty?

These two positions can be contrasted with the situation which would prevail in the event of no deal â€" the sort of outcome which has appeal to those making the most absolutist arguments about sovereignty.

In this situation, which would be the result of a failure to make commitments to the EU about its future regulatory choices, the UK would face the full panoply of tariffs and regulatory checks on its trade with the EU and with other states. The UK, as a member of the WTO in its own right, has schedules of tariffs and concessions which are in the process of being certified at the WTO. It is estimated that the pivot to ‘no deal’ will have a bigger long-term economic cost than COVID with the LSE report estimating that the economic fall-out in the no-deal scenario will be two to three times worse than the effects of COVID. The harmful economic effects will not just be felt in the UK; companies in the EU, like BMW, are now expressing concerns about the higher economic cost associated with the shift to WTO tariffs.

Beyond the huge economic effects of no deal, there remain misconceptions about the WTO implicit to the arguments around absolutist conceptions of sovereignty. The WTO is a global institution that operates through committees, groups and coalitions: it is an institution that is fundamentally rooted in negotiation. So, while the UK will be a sovereign actor, it will nonetheless be bound by rules and standards negotiated alongside the other 163 Members. Its freedom to act is not unfettered; rather, the UK â€" like every other WTO Member â€" will be bound by the decisions taken by consensus. Furthermore, the core principles of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) and national treatment curtail the UK’s ability simply to set its own terms of trade. As Stephen Woolcock pointed out, ‘the WTO is a predominantly rules-based trading system based on consensus and cooperation, as opposed to a power-based system in which the unilateral use of market power alone determines outcomes’. Moreover, the WTO is a system in crisis: its dispute settlement system is no longer fully functional, the only remaining Appellate Body member’s term has now expired, and the escalating China-US trade war has threatened the existence of the institution. Brexit is yet another aggravating factor â€" a disruptor â€" to the regulatory structures governing global trade. The UK’s failed attempt to lead the institution should come as a warning shot to the government that any attempt to articulate a Global Britain narrative may be met with scepticism by other nations. Despite these disruptors, there remains support for a modernised WTO and there is renewed hope that the shift in US Presidency, and the appointment of the new US Trade Representative, can help steer the institution in a new direction. The UK should, therefore, carefully reflect on the role it seeks to play in the WTO going forward.

The technical rules of the WTO extend far beyond tariffs to issues like intellectual property, services, domestic support (subsidies), trade remedies, and regulatory disciplines like technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phytosanitary measures. Companies need to prove the origin of their products under complex rules of origins procedures and comply with the certification and customs procedures of each trading nation to gain market access. Even as an independent WTO member, it is unlikely that the UK can set a course that is separate to, or distinct from, the EU’s ‘rule maker’ and ‘standard-setter’ approach. It does, therefore, seem increasingly likely that the UK will either align with the EU to lead the way on regulatory issues or simply become a ‘rule-taker’ like other nations. Even under WTO terms, the UK is not going to have absolute control of its laws, regulations, and other trade policies.

Conclusion

The conclusions are stark, and in many ways, unsurprising. We have focused on the performativity of the ‘sovereignty’ narrative and problematised the (many) ways in which the UK government has justified Brexit decision-taking based on sovereignty. We have demonstrated that the freedom to set one’s own trade rules comes at a significant cost, and in any event, that it is not, even within the confines of the WTO, absolute. The very real risk is that the UK has, at every stage in the Brexit process, sought to exchange the real power which it has to shape European and global standards for ‘a chimaera’.

[Rod]

Good post Steve, on the button as far as I am concerned.
Have a good and safe Christmas to my Forum friends and especially to Phil who to my mind does a great job in difficult circumstances. As they say you can't please them all.

[lmj52]

Ditto Steve, Imj, and the rest of us hopefully "normal" Forumers.

Special thanks to Phil for trying his best to keep us on track!

Yes agreed. Feliz navidad, but stay safe everyone.

[byrney]

Ditto Steve, Imj, and the rest of us hopefully "normal" Forumers.

Special thanks to Phil for trying his best to keep us on track!

[lmj52]

Steve, agreed. same sentiments to you and your family

[steveconway24]

What I could never understand was why folk that used to live here, but for whatever reason moved back to the UK, came on here to say how good Brexit was.
No one in their right mind that lives here would've voted to leave, if they had still lived here, they would also have voted remain.
Brexit has split the UK. Half want it, half don't.
And I truly believe that a lot of leave voters, voted the way they did just to shake up the UK, it was the first chance they had to make a change.
Voting labour or conservative doesn't change anything. But the UK does need to change, it isnt the great nation it used to be, and Brexiteers blame the EU for that because they had an opertunity to blame someone. Right or wrong.

I hope a deal is sorted, I don't want to see the UK struggle, my kids live there and are doing really well.for themselves, but they are concerned for their future due to Brexit.

A good discussion is always welcome, the pathetic, sad, snide insults (from BOTH sides) was no good for anyone.

Let's wait and see what happens over the next few weeks, stay safe everyone, have a good Christmas and hopefully 2021 is a lot better than this year.🤞👍

[byrney]

Well. I for one will continue to support this forum. Yes, I do disagree with many comments, but I also agree with many comments. I also know that I sometimes might post things which are not well receieved. Que Sera. That's what Social media is all about isn't it?

However, other than the Brexit etc rubbish which has been going on for months ad nauseum (thanks Phil for finally taking a grip) this forum is a mine of information which I find invaluable.
Keep up the good work Phil, but please get rid of the a***holes and get the forum get back to the font of all knowledge.

[Floss]

Well Phil you have over time encouraged the so called Brexit debate with your so called wisdom on the Brexit debate and i for sometimes have wondered why you needed to get involved.
Anyone can see that the twins Tetley and well whatever is name is for this month Johnny 73 have been on a mission to cause problems on this subject.
They are well supported by fellow members who at times seem to agree with what ever is said by these two.
One can only assume that the members you have suspended are people who have good reason to explain and give their support to the leave side which as you may know was voted by the UK residents and not by your members who seem for the last 4/5 years  to have been on a mission at times to be very bitter and venomous in their comments towards any individual who shows any comments which supports leaving and you a times support these comments.
Sorry Phil me along with many others who have spoke on here will move on to me your perfectly good forum has been hijacked by the few as your main man the all seeing all knowing and his disciples have left the forum devoid of good comment and discussion.
Will it change on will time will tell........

[lmj52]

Good news, and an apology from me as sometimes I reacted to their nonsense, I really hope the uk recovers from this.
I hope my fellow forum members and their families have a good Christmas under these difficult circumstances. Stay safe everyone.

[Johnny73]

John is taking a  backseat on all things other than local interest from now on  but takes this opportunity to wish everyone a Happy Christmas and a safe Healthy New Year. 😊
JJ

[Tetley]

In light of posts concerning the forum, I have taken the decision to attempt to bring the forum back to what it was set up for. I have now banned lindon, maz, webjamin and ajc. Others living locally will get the same treatment if they continue with their tirade about brexit and how bad UK is. Like others I am fed up with it. What would even better is if Tetley could post in the English that we all know he can write in. The poor English joke has run its course a long time ago. You have great local knowledge Steve, so please try and do as I ask. Johnny, same applies to you any more of your snide comments to members will result in another ban.

i use a spell checker....i never went to school and under 12 when i did i was taught ITA  english which was found to fail a lot of 1960,s children and it may also explain why i am so in favor of educating and training kids,but your correct i have a lot of life & local knowledge that i gained well before the event of the internet social media  lay specialist on all things  ....... explosion.

happy Christmas  mass Dears and try not to be to over sensitive for 2021  as we have a very long haul in front of us over the next couple of year    x

Well done Steve, I knew you be OK with it. 😉😉

Your most Welcome Dear ,anyway must Dash im re piping my Hiab ,this can been found on Google  & youtube for the interested  oily & Out    x

[felipe]

In light of posts concerning the forum, I have taken the decision to attempt to bring the forum back to what it was set up for. I have now banned lindon, maz, webjamin and ajc. Others living locally will get the same treatment if they continue with their tirade about brexit and how bad UK is. Like others I am fed up with it. What would even better is if Tetley could post in the English that we all know he can write in. The poor English joke has run its course a long time ago. You have great local knowledge Steve, so please try and do as I ask. Johnny, same applies to you any more of your snide comments to members will result in another ban.

i use a spell checker....i never went to school and under 12 when i did i was taught ITA  english which was found to fail a lot of 1960,s children and it may also explain why i am so in favor of educating and training kids,but your correct i have a lot of life & local knowledge that i gained well before the event of the internet social media  lay specialist on all things  ....... explosion.

happy Christmas  mass Dears and try not to be to over sensitive for 2021  as we have a very long haul in front of us over the next couple of year    x

Well done Steve, I knew you be OK with it. 😉😉

[Angleseyite]

In light of posts concerning the forum, I have taken the decision to attempt to bring the forum back to what it was set up for. I have now banned lindon, maz, webjamin and ajc. Others living locally will get the same treatment if they continue with their tirade about brexit and how bad UK is. Like others I am fed up with it. What would even better is if Tetley could post in the English that we all know he can write in. The poor English joke has run its course a long time ago. You have great local knowledge Steve, so please try and do as I ask. Johnny, same applies to you any more of your snide comments to members will result in another ban.

i use a spell checker....i never went to school and under 12 when i did i was taught ITA  english which was found to fail a lot of 1960,s children and it may also explain why i am so in favor of educating and training kids,but your correct i have a lot of life & local knowledge that i gained well before the event of the internet .

you're,  favour and capital I Tets, oh and a space after the comma's etc, but you're nearly there. 

[Tetley]

In light of posts concerning the forum, I have taken the decision to attempt to bring the forum back to what it was set up for. I have now banned lindon, maz, webjamin and ajc. Others living locally will get the same treatment if they continue with their tirade about brexit and how bad UK is. Like others I am fed up with it. What would even better is if Tetley could post in the English that we all know he can write in. The poor English joke has run its course a long time ago. You have great local knowledge Steve, so please try and do as I ask. Johnny, same applies to you any more of your snide comments to members will result in another ban.

i use a spell checker....i never went to school and under 12 when i did i was taught ITA  english which was found to fail a lot of 1960,s children and it may also explain why i am so in favor of educating and training kids,but your correct i have a lot of life & local knowledge that i gained well before the event of the internet social media  lay specialist on all things  ....... explosion.

happy Christmas  mass Dears and try not to be to over sensitive for 2021  as we have a very long haul in front of us over the next couple of year    x

[Optomist]

Frankly I neither need not want to read the poison they post, so for that reason I think the time has come for me to leave. There are other, friendlier forums out there where people offer information and support, as well as enjoying banter, all with respect. I

[/quote]

We agree too as this blog and the general Forum is nearing slander and libel on a daily basis.  Many folk in Arboleas are disgusted by this Forum!  Examine the pickup of FB local groups reflecting our lack of interest in drivel here daily, from the chosen few.

This topic and several others here, are all off point and more abusive than informative.  Should be shut down asap.

Good will to all.

In light of posts concerning the forum, I have taken the decision to attempt to bring the forum back to what it was set up for. I have now banned lindon, maz, webjamin and ajc. Others living locally will get the same treatment if they continue with their tirade about brexit and how bad UK is. Like others I am fed up with it. What would even better is if Tetley could post in the English that we all know he can write in. The poor English joke has run its course a long time ago. You have great local knowledge Steve, so please try and do as I ask. Johnny, same applies to you any more of your snide comments to members will result in another ban.

It was too little too late a long time ago .

[felipe]

Does this mean we can put an end to discussing Brexit until it ACTUALLY affects us?
All the "This and that, that could happen....." is just boring and causing some folks upset.

That is my intention yes. If Karen can pm me who the other member is I will look into it. All forums have an element of vitriol. It is almost an expected consequence. Brexit has brought the worst out in some. I did warn I would take action if it continued. Maybe should have acted sooner.

[steveconway24]

Does this mean we can put an end to discussing Brexit until it ACTUALLY affects us?
All the "This and that, that could happen....." is just boring and causing some folks upset.

[Karen4]

I've been a member of this forum since October 2007. I joined as I was moving to the area and I thought I could benefit from those already here, and indeed, I learned a lot, and hopefully have been able to pass on useful info to others.
However, I have looked back over many, many posts, and most which are unfriendly, attacking, vicious and nasty seem to come from one member trying to stir up trouble. Yep, that's Johnny73/Cartron/Raymondo/Raysun. Same modus operandi every time. Since you've threatened to ban him "again" Phil, I think it just cements what we all know, he has had various aliases on here and thinks he has fooled us all.
There is one other member who is very good at making up fake accounts in order to attack people on here, good grief if you only knew the half of what they're REALLY like you'd be astonished. Such a level of vitriol from this pair is very sad, they must be desperately unhappy people.
Frankly I neither need not want to read the poison they post, so for that reason I think the time has come for me to leave. There are other, friendlier forums out there where people offer information and support, as well as enjoying banter, all with respect. I
Merry Christmas to all you "normal" forum members, and to the two miserable little excuses for humans, I hope you find some happiness soon. You'll find the world will treat you more kindly as a result.

[nibbler]

About time too Phil, lets hope you pick on them when they try to get back using other aliases. 

Nibbler,

[Lynden]

Sorry you feel that way Phil. Perhaps Johnny73 and LMJ should join us.....the world just became a small place for Arboleans.
Take care all and a Merry Christmas.

[felipe]

In light of posts concerning the forum, I have taken the decision to attempt to bring the forum back to what it was set up for. I have now banned lindon, maz, webjamin and ajc. Others living locally will get the same treatment if they continue with their tirade about brexit and how bad UK is. Like others I am fed up with it. What would even better is if Tetley could post in the English that we all know he can write in. The poor English joke has run its course a long time ago. You have great local knowledge Steve, so please try and do as I ask. Johnny, same applies to you any more of your snide comments to members will result in another ban.

[Tetley]

Morning Mi Lovelies Santa's on his way (dont worry dears he is flying in no Marston WTO Park for Santa  ) 

[PrincessJAK]

We agree too as this blog and the general Forum is nearing slander and libel on a daily basis.  Many folk in Arboleas are disgusted by this Forum!  Examine the pickup of FB local groups reflecting our lack of interest in drivel here daily, from the chosen few.

This topic and several others here, are all off point and more abusive than informative.  Should be shut down asap.

Good will to all.

[Malcolm]

I’m with you there Roger.

[webejamin]

I suppose it's all been leaked in the past, now they've found a way of keeping it quiet and out of the ears of the wreckers?

[lmj52]

It's certainly gone very quiet about the Brexit trade talks in the media today

Boris is doing the old smoke screen trick

[webejamin]

It's certainly gone very quiet about the Brexit trade talks in the media today

[Roger]

I wonder why I read this forum.

I feel embarrassed even to admit I read the twaddle and nasty comments.

I realize why most arboleas residents I speak to have long since stopped.
I think I will join them.
It has long since lost it's reason to exist, which was for local British residents to keep in touch and pass on information to help them adjust to life in Spain.

Sorry Phil.

[ajc]

Oh no I see Johnny bag has singled me out again! You need to crawl out of another members backside for ten minutes and turn off your computer your getting bitchy 😂😂😂

[lmj52]

Lynden usual comments from you.

[Johnny73]

***If you were Chinese in Beijing you would have disappeared by now.**

Hope that doesent apply to the Welsh in Arboleas 😂

[Lynden]

Webejamin, did you need one of your pencils to understand this?

We’ve just spent 5 years at war with each other, devalued the £ by 20%, savaged our economy, quit the world’s largest free trade zone, created a mountain of red tape and flushed over £200 billion down the drain, to “control our borders”. 6 EU countries did it in under 24 hours with a press release!

Usual glib BS LMJ. Completely irrelevant as usual. If you were Chinese in Beijing you would have disappeared by now.😀😂

[lmj52]

Webejamin, did you need one of your pencils to understand this?

We’ve just spent 5 years at war with each other, devalued the £ by 20%, savaged our economy, quit the world’s largest free trade zone, created a mountain of red tape and flushed over £200 billion down the drain, to “control our borders”. 6 EU countries did it in under 24 hours with a press release!

Well I did need to get me pencil out, but still couldn't get it

Not enough lead in it maybe?

[Lizzie1201]

Sorry to disappoint you Johnny73 but my supermarket has plenty of sprouts, broccoli and cauliflowers 😊😊😊