NEW STATE OF ALARM

[Johnny73]

Maz , that was a really good post and was right to the point.
👏

[lmj52]

Maz, good points.

[Tetley]

I think we all know that the reason for lockdowns etc is to protect the health service in all countries. Maybe, if leaders were to come out and state categorically that this is the sole reason. And stop using scare tactics with artificially exaggerated death rates. We would all be more inclined to accept lockdowns.
DISCUSS WITHOUT ABUSE.

Maybe they don't say that the only reason for lockdowns is solely to protect the health service because perhaps it isn't.

People keep saying how it is mainly the elderly or those at risk dying from this virus, but what they don't seem to grasp is that nearly a quarter (23%) of the Uk's population are aged 60 or over.

Both the UK and Spain have ageing populations. In the UK there are now 15.5 million people are aged 60 or over. The number of "older" old people is also rising - the UK now has 3.2 million people aged 80 and over and almost 600,000 of these are aged 90 or over. (Source ONS) Add on top of that the 2.9 million on the NHS at risk list and that is a lot of lives for any government to be playing Russian roulette with. If 50% of thid group were to contract the virus and applied the WHO crude mortality rate that around 4% will die we could potentially be seeing around 400,000 deaths in the UK alone.

I can understand why people may think that death rates are being highly exaggerated but we've also got to remember that we have so far only experienced this virus under lockdowns and strict controls.

But about protecting our health services. People need to keep in mind that the statistics show those that die of the virus do do usually within 7 days of being admitted to hospital but those infected but eventually recover spend approximately 15-21 days in hospital. We are now seeing infection rises in 100,000s of younger and otherwise healthy people, many of whom will end up being admitted to hospital  before eventually making a full recovery. It is these cases that are unindating our health services, stopping cancer treatments and the long awaited surgeries required by some people. Hopefully those who don't think they need to mask up and social distance because this disease is only effecting the elderly will stop and take on board this fact.

and that is the business Bit  without the social management the job may have been well and truly over welmed  ,as mi mam said were at war wi an enamy we carnt see and is all around us.

[MAZ4929]

I think we all know that the reason for lockdowns etc is to protect the health service in all countries. Maybe, if leaders were to come out and state categorically that this is the sole reason. And stop using scare tactics with artificially exaggerated death rates. We would all be more inclined to accept lockdowns.
DISCUSS WITHOUT ABUSE.

Maybe they don't say that the only reason for lockdowns is solely to protect the health service because perhaps it isn't.

People keep saying how it is mainly the elderly or those at risk dying from this virus, but what they don't seem to grasp is that nearly a quarter (23%) of the Uk's population are aged 60 or over.

Both the UK and Spain have ageing populations. In the UK there are now 15.5 million people are aged 60 or over. The number of "older" old people is also rising - the UK now has 3.2 million people aged 80 and over and almost 600,000 of these are aged 90 or over. (Source ONS) Add on top of that the 2.9 million on the NHS at risk list and that is a lot of lives for any government to be playing Russian roulette with. If 50% of this group were to contract the virus and the WHO crude mortality rate that around 4% will die was applied, we could potentially be looking at around 400,000 deaths in the UK alone.

I can understand why people may think that death rates are being highly exaggerated but we've also got to remember that we have so far only experienced this virus under lockdowns and strict controls.

But about protecting our health services. People need to keep in mind that the statistics show those that die of the virus do do usually within 7 days of being admitted to hospital but those infected but eventually recover spend approximately 15-21 days in hospital. We are now seeing infection rises in 100,000s of younger and otherwise healthy people, many of whom will end up being admitted to hospital before eventually making a full recovery. It is these cases that are inundating our health services, stopping cancer treatments and the long awaited surgeries required by some people. Hopefully those who don't think they need to mask up and social distance because this disease is only effecting the elderly will stop and take on board this fact.

[ajc]

You do have to chuckle at Johnny bag 73 continual backtracking though 😂

[landrock]

Covid 73?

[nibbler]

I think some people on here start off with a few relevant comments then, run out of sensible things to say but still continue to post then make themselves open to ridicule.
Nibbler

[Karen4]

Crikey Johnny73 I wish you'd stop editing almost all of your posts the minute you put them up, the unedited versions are much more interesting! You were previously talking about two different bars with two different incidents and anyway, nobody mentioned Euromillions except you.
Anyhow, here's hoping all those affected manage to recover, and keep away from large groups of people in the future.

[Johnny73]

To be clear and my last comment on this , the  establishment where this unfortunate event happened has nothing to do with any place that sells Lottery tickets. !!
Manolo and others wearing yellow jackets go around selling Spanish lottery tickets so no need to go to any one place .  Lots of bars sell Spanish lottery tickets , El Gordo etc   Nothing to do with Euromillions.  OK.??
Now perhaps we can  move on and stop the sniping  and wish the positive test group  a quick   recovery.     Stay safe all.

[Karen4]

Correct Angieh and most people who still live in Arboleas already know .
A speedy recovery to all those involved. 🌛🌛

Ah, I think we were talking about two different incidents, I was referring to the one where you had previously complained about people's behaviour in a bar where you had gone to buy a lottery ticket.

[Lynden]

Never bought a lottery ticket so the clue was lost on me Johnny. Location certainly helps though. Speedy recovery for all affected.

[Johnny73]

Correct Angieh and most people who still live in Arboleas already know .
A speedy recovery to all those involved. 🌛🌛

[Angieh]

Karen , it might have been the OP disgruntlement ....but as far as I can gather the venue that caused the issue is much closer to the roundabouts , not the centre .

[Karen4]

Was he not there to buy a lottery ticket? I think there's only one bar in Arboleas which is a lottery agent so it's not too difficult to work out which one he was complaining about.

[byrney]

Yes that's the one Lynden. But for some reason I can't see the post any more! Must have been removed.
It was definitely there because I asked Johnny to state which bar he was talking about but he declined the opportunity.

[Lynden]

That’s right Johnny, in this thread you did say a Spanish Party. But if mine and Byrney’s memory serve us right you did mention having entered a bar where the necessary precautions were not being followed and you left. Is that the bar Byrney is asking about?

[Johnny73]

Read the post Byrney. No mention of anyone flouting rules or whether it was a bar.
Which part of private family party did you not understand .???
Have you just returned from one.??
I was trying to be helpful on where a large number of cases came from on one day.
And a few more related to that event today.
Its common knowledge where it was.
I never mentioned masks or social distancing so get a few facts right for goodness sake before spouting off.

[byrney]

Ah, as positive as ever Johnny......
Please tell me which bars you frequent which are allegedly flouting the rules so that I can avoid them.
My experience is totally different.
All bars that I have been in (both Arboleas and Zurgena) are observing social distancing and following mask procedures.

[doreen1]

The have said they won’t impose a full lockdown unless it’s ordered by Madrid, but they will be making further announcements on Sunday. Murcia have announced they are closing bars and restaurants at the weekend, so maybe that’s what’s on the cards for us.

[Johnny73]

All bars restaurants and hospitality  in  the whole of Murcia to close for a period and only a matter of time before this happens elsewhere.

[byrney]

I understood that the Junta was supposed to announce new measures today.
Does anyone know the outcome?

[twojaysalmeria]

Ah, I see this discussion is in two places at once - repeating my answer from other thread here.

So, Spain uses a PCR test which is the current gold standard (there’s an instant test which is Spanish made using nano-technology which MAY be on the market by next Spring) and which differentiates 100 percent between the flu and covid. I found it interesting that Fullfact published a report, which I’ve copied sections from below, thanks to a FaceBook post which is claiming there’s confusion between covid and flu cases after testing.

One thing that the report also mentions if that antibody tests are not as certain â€" it’s a different process anyway â€" so that’s where the uncertainty lies, being unable to say for absolutely certain whether you’ve had covid or not (false positives or false negatives).

Pasting apposite statements here:

“…the diagnostic test used in the UK is called a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, which looks for the virus’s genetic material to see if someone currently has Covid-19. 

Most importantly, what a PCR test won’t do is misinterpret the presence of other coronaviruses as the presence of the virus which causes Covid-19 …

Results for a range of available PCR tests show that they do not cross-react with any viruses analysed, including other coronaviruses.”

Source â€" Full Fact.org Dated 1st October

[lmj52]

Let’s just hope we don’t see this happening.
Today will be the 'last hurrah' for millions of Brits who, from midnight, will find their freedoms curtailed as they are told to remain indoors under draconian measures for the next four weeks. The shutters will come down on pubs, restaurants and non-essential stores by the end of the day, signalling the start of yet more swingeing restrictions. Today hordes of shoppers have been seen queuing outside retail stores up and down high streets, while eager revellers are already getting the rounds in at Wetherspoons. And gym bunnies are hitting the treadmills and weights rack for one last session before they are forced back into home workouts for the next month. Pictured, clockwise from left: Shoppers queue outside Primark in Sunderland; panic-buying at an Aldi in Lincoln; and shoppers in Newcastle braving the chilly weather this morning to grab last minute bargains.

[Johnny73]

That makes sense Elgin. Its possible many people had Covid as far back as last December and thought it was a bad flu.
Now the new tests are so sensitive that the residue of Covid is still showing up
But it not causing any major problem or death in almost all cases.

[lmj52]

The main Covid test is the PCR test which is a DNA test (the virus's RNA is converted into DNA as part of the analysis process).  As the RNA /DNA of Covid 19 is unique it is extremely unlikely that people with flu will test positive for Covid19 (unless they have Covid19 as well).  However, I do recall some discussions about whether PCR tests are too sensitive and detect fragments of RNA (e.g. dead virus still left behind after the body has beaten the virus and the person has no live virus left.

Good post, makes sense

[Elgin]

The main Covid test is the PCR test which is a DNA test (the virus's RNA is converted into DNA as part of the analysis process).  As the RNA /DNA of Covid 19 is unique it is extremely unlikely that people with flu will test positive for Covid19 (unless they have Covid19 as well).  However, I do recall some discussions about whether PCR tests are too sensitive and detect fragments of RNA (e.g. dead virus still left behind after the body has beaten the virus and the person has no live virus left.

[Lynden]

I think you may be on to something Phil.

[darion]

I see groups of dog walkers not social distancing not wearing masks from my garden going to put rubbish in bins no masks groups congreating in bars that's why People cannot abide by the rules so it was only a matter of time before numbers increased. I wear a mask everywhere as it's the Spainish rules but my own countrymen seem to ignore rules. If they cannot abide by the measures imposed then best they return to UK where these restrictions are in place and let us that follow the rules stay here where I feel safe.

[Johnny73]

It would seem that this was indeed a bubble as it came from a private party in a local establishment and it was a Spanish family party.
Not a place that expats frequent so they can relax a little. Everyone is being quarantined by the Police.

[Johnny73]

My Brother had Pneumonia  two months ago and was in ICU for 4 weeks he was tested and was negative for Covid on admission then after two weeks in ICU he had a scan which they said showed signs of Covid. After two days he was tested again and was all clear. Very strange and his name probably counted as a positive.
Fortunately he is out and doing well but it does make you wonder.

[felipe]

OK, I am no conspiracy theorist, nor tin hatter. I have always looked at issues with a logical approach. So I have tbought about this sudden rise in infection locally. Looking for a logical reason for the sudden rise in infection from virtually 0 to over 40 in some places on a matter of days.
I would ask, for example the 23 in Arboleas, if they are all part of the same 'bubble'. If not, then are they over 60 years old. If yes, then have they had a flu jab in last 10 days. If yes, have they had a reaction to it with some flu symptoms, (something common). If yes, did you then go for a covid test. If yes, perhaps the test failed to identify it was the flu virus and not the covid one. If this is the case, then perhaps, just perhaps, this is the reason for the huge increase across Europe.
Im Arboleas last week they ran out of flu vaccine. Indicating that many more people are receiving the jab.
It really would help everyone if we were told whether these large numbers of infections are from unrelated people outside of their bubble. Or are in one big group.
Finally, we all know covid exists that it can be nasty for some people. However, the number of deaths is comparatively low. I think we all know that the reason for lockdowns etc is to protect the health service in all countries. Maybe, if leaders were to come out and state categorically that this is the sole reason. And stop using scare tactics with artificially exaggerated death rates. We would all be more inclined to accept lockdowns.
DISCUSS WITHOUT ABUSE.

[Johnny73]

Yes, you are correct and it shows how things have changed in two days.
Im beginning to agree with some that  say that maybe the test is too sensitive  and may be picking up cases of Flu and declaring it Covid.
Its really hard to understand the big jump for no great reason and yet deaths are miniscule  on a percentage basis.
There may be false positives as well for whatever reason.
Anyway stay as safe as you all can.

[Elgin]

We are  better off in Arboleas the many other places with a very small new case rate.
In Murcia many areas have exceeded the 500 to 100000 rate in 14 days.
Stay safe everyone.

Erm Arboleas has a new case rate (IA 14 days) of 696 per 100,000 as of 3 Nov! The average rate across the Levante / Alto Almanzora health district is 591 per 100,000

[Tetley]

word on the streets is were going to full lock down as per march....soon .

[Cindygirl]

Fantastic Bromley. 'That's just what I was looking for. The local figures are the most  important.
thank you so much